By Trent Klarenbach, BSA AgEc, PAg
Wednesday, November 11, 2026. ICE canola is closed today for Remembrance Day. U.S. markets are open.
For information only. Not trading advice. Fundamental bias and scenarios only.
Farmer Quick Read
USDA's November WASDE pulled the two halves of the Prairie complex in opposite directions: the U.S. oilseed sheet got tighter, and the world wheat sheet got heavier.
U.S. soybean ending stocks were cut 15 million bushels to 300 million (WASDE, Nov. 10). Canola took the spillover: ICE January settled C$770.40, up C$13.00, on Nov. 10 (Glacier FarmMedia ICE review).
World wheat ending stocks rose 4.78 Mt to 280.82 Mt, on bigger crops in Argentina, Australia, Kazakhstan and Ukraine (WASDE).
USDA left Canada's wheat crop, exports and stocks unchanged. The Canadian balance sheets that matter most are still AAFC's Oct. 20 outlook: canola carry-out 1.968 Mt, all-wheat 5.650 Mt.
Read: canola bias leans supportive on the oilseed side; CWRS bias stays neutral, with a heavier world sheet offset by slower Black Sea exports.
What's New
U.S. soybeans: production up 12 million bushels to 4,574 million, yield 53.3 bu/ac, exports raised 25 million bushels, ending stocks 300 million, down from 315 million (WASDE).
U.S. soybean oil: 2026-27 ending stocks 1,698 million lb, down from 1,797 million in October; the season-average price forecast was lowered 2 cents to 68 cents/lb (WASDE).
U.S. corn: yield cut 1.6 bu/ac to 179.6; ending stocks 1,758 million bushels, down from 1,849 million (WASDE).
World wheat: production 827.51 Mt (up 5.12 Mt); ending stocks 280.82 Mt (up 4.78 Mt). Russia and Ukraine exports each cut 1.0 Mt, to 39.0 and 11.5 Mt, as the Black Sea conflict keeps shipments below long-term averages (WASDE).
Global rapeseed: production raised 0.7 Mt on higher yields in Australia and Uruguay (WASDE).
Canadian canola movement: the Canadian Grain Commission's week ended Nov. 1 showed canola exports of 284,900 t and domestic use of 251,100 t, with both ahead of last year's pace to date (CGC figures as reported by Dow Jones, Nov. 9; CGC Grain Statistics Weekly).
Prairie Market Dashboard
Crop | Fundamental bias | Key driver |
|---|---|---|
Canola | Mildly supportive | U.S. soybean stocks cut to 300M bu; AAFC carry-out 1.968 Mt (8.9% stocks-to-use); CGC exports and domestic use ahead of last year |
CWRS | Neutral | World wheat stocks up 4.78 Mt vs. Russia and Ukraine exports cut 1.0 Mt each; AAFC wheat (ex durum) carry-out 4.300 Mt |
Durum | Neutral | AAFC carry-out 1.350 Mt, up from 1.102 Mt in 2025-26; U.S. durum stocks unchanged at 24M bu |
Barley | Neutral | AAFC carry-out 0.950 Mt; global barley crop raised 1.0 Mt to 161.1 Mt |
Corn / Soybeans | Mildly supportive | Both U.S. sheets tightened in November |
Sources: USDA WASDE, Nov. 10, 2026; AAFC Outlook for Principal Field Crops, Oct. 20, 2026. Stocks-to-use is calculated by PGI from AAFC rows: 1.968 ÷ (7.700 exports + 14.401 domestic use) = 8.9%.
Deep Dive 1: Canola Rides the Soy Sheet
Canola's November WASDE story is not about canola. USDA does not publish a Canadian canola balance sheet in the WASDE. The link runs through soybeans and vegetable oil.
The U.S. soybean sheet tightened because demand rose faster than supply. Production was raised 12 million bushels, but exports were raised 25 million and seed use was raised slightly, so ending stocks fell 15 million bushels to 300 million (WASDE). The soybean price forecast went up 10 cents to $12.10/bu.
The oil side is more mixed. U.S. soybean oil ending stocks fell to 1,698 million lb, but USDA also lowered its soybean oil price forecast 2 cents to 68 cents/lb (WASDE). Tighter meal and oil stocks without a higher oil price forecast is a reason not to read the report as an across-the-board vegetable oil rally.
The Canadian sheet has not changed since October. AAFC's Oct. 20 figures for 2026-27 (AAFC):
Production: 22.051 Mt
Exports: 7.700 Mt
Food and industrial use (crush): 13.900 Mt
Total domestic use: 14.401 Mt
Carry-out: 1.968 Mt, up from 1.889 Mt in 2025-26
Average price forecast: C$800/t
Read: the oilseed side gave canola a supportive push on Nov. 10, and early-season CGC exports and domestic use are running ahead of last year. The Canadian sheet itself is not tight. AAFC describes the 2026-27 carry-out as nearly on par with the five-year average, so the bias is mildly supportive, not supportive. The global rapeseed crop also grew 0.7 Mt this month.
Deep Dive 2: A Heavier World Wheat Sheet, With a Black Sea Asterisk
World wheat went the other way. USDA raised 2026-27 world production 5.12 Mt to 827.51 Mt and ending stocks 4.78 Mt to 280.82 Mt (WASDE). The largest changes among exporters:
Argentina: production up 1.5 Mt to 23.0 Mt; exports up 0.5 Mt to 16.5 Mt
Australia: production up 1.5 Mt to 32.5 Mt; exports up 1.0 Mt to 24.5 Mt
Russia: exports down 1.0 Mt to 39.0 Mt
Ukraine: production up 0.5 Mt to 26.5 Mt; exports down 1.0 Mt to 11.5 Mt
Canada: production 36.50 Mt, exports 30.50 Mt, ending stocks 4.75 Mt, all unchanged
Major exporters' combined ending stocks rose to 51.88 Mt from 48.47 Mt (WASDE). Part of that build is wheat that is stuck, not wheat that is surplus: USDA said the Black Sea conflict keeps Russian and Ukrainian shipments below long-term averages despite alternative ports and transport.
Southern Hemisphere supply is the competitive pressure for Canadian wheat this winter. Argentina and Australia are both moving into harvest with larger crops and higher export forecasts, while USDA left Canada's export line unchanged. AAFC has 2026-27 all-wheat exports at 28.750 Mt and carry-out at 5.650 Mt (AAFC).
On the U.S. side, hard red spring ending stocks were 198 million bushels, up 1 million from October, and durum was unchanged at 24 million (WASDE, wheat by class).
Read: CWRS bias stays neutral. The world sheet is heavier, but the Black Sea export cuts and slower shipments mean some of those stocks are not reaching buyers. Durum stays neutral on a larger AAFC carry-out of 1.350 Mt.
What Would Change the Read
Canola toward supportive: CGC weekly exports and domestic use keep running ahead of last year's pace, and the oil side confirms with firmer soybean oil and palm, not only soybeans.
Canola toward neutral: AAFC's November outlook or Statistics Canada's next production estimate adds supply above 22.051 Mt, or crude oil and vegetable oils keep sliding.
CWRS toward supportive: Black Sea shipments stay constrained long enough that importers shift to North American origin in measurable tonnes.
CWRS toward bearish: Black Sea loadings normalize while the Argentine and Australian harvests confirm USDA's larger crops.
Durum and barley: no change in read unless AAFC revises the 1.350 Mt and 0.950 Mt carry-outs.
Next Official Data
CGC Grain Statistics Weekly for the week ended Nov. 8
AAFC Outlook for Principal Field Crops, November update
USDA weekly export sales
Sources: USDA, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE-677), Nov. 10, 2026 · AAFC, Outlook for Principal Field Crops, Oct. 20, 2026 · Canadian Grain Commission, Grain Statistics Weekly, week ended Nov. 1, 2026, as reported by Dow Jones · ICE Futures canola settlements, Nov. 10, 2026, via Glacier FarmMedia. Compiled Nov. 11, 2026.
For information only. Not trading advice.
Klarenbach Research is independent, takes no commissions and does not execute trades.
