Trent Klarenbach, BSA AgEc, PAg, founder and lead analyst, Klarenbach Research
USDA's November WASDE cut the U.S. corn crop by 141 million bushels and lowered U.S. soybean ending stocks to 300 million bushels, below the average trade estimate.
January canola gained C$13.00 on Tuesday to C$770.40 per tonne, and ICE canola is closed today for Remembrance Day while U.S. markets are open.
The Abu Dhabi talks between Russia, Ukraine and the United States wrapped up today with a prisoner exchange agreed and no announcement on Black Sea shipping.
WASDE stocks
USDA cut its 2026/27 U.S. corn yield 1.6 bushels to 179.6 bushels per acre, lowering production to 15.9 billion bushels, with feed and residual use and exports each reduced 25 million bushels, according to the November WASDE. CME Group's report summary puts U.S. corn ending stocks at 1.758 billion bushels against an average trade estimate of 1.846 billion, and soybean ending stocks at 300 million bushels against 332 million expected, on a 53.3 bushel yield. World soybean ending stocks came in at 123.5 million tonnes, and Brazil's soybean crop was lowered to 186.0 million tonnes from 188.0 million, the same summary shows.
On wheat, the WASDE raised global 2026/27 supplies 6.4 million tonnes to 1,110.4 million, with Argentina and Australia each up 1.5 million tonnes to 23.0 and 32.5 million. Projected global ending stocks rose 4.8 million tonnes to 280.8 million, and U.S. ending stocks rose 3 million bushels to 743 million, still 19% below last year.
December corn settled up US$0.09¾ at US$4.49 a bushel and January soybeans rose US$0.39¾ to US$12.28 on Nov 10, Brownfield reported.
Canola and Prairie crops
January canola rose C$13.00 to C$770.40 per tonne on Nov 10, March gained C$12.30 to C$781.00 and May added C$11.40 to C$788.50, as gains in soybeans after the USDA report spilled over into canola, the ICE Review carried by MarketScreener said. Volume was 70,629 contracts, against 67,711 on Monday. DePutter Publishing's ICE close pointed to Canadian canola exports and domestic processing both running ahead of last year's pace.
Bunge's Moose Jaw terminal closed with net cash prices of C$706.03 for canola, up C$15.00, C$289.80 for 1 CWRS wheat, up C$3.60, C$310.34 for amber durum, C$212.54 for feed barley and C$204.76 for oats, SaskToday reported.
Saskatchewan's final crop report of the year put canola yields near 38.3 bushels per acre, hard red spring wheat at 51.9, durum at 44.2, barley at 71.2 and oats at 96, the Western Producer reported. Only 32% of hard red spring wheat graded 1 CW, and 16% of barley graded malt against a 10-year average of 31%. In September, Prairie wheat prices excluding durum posted a fourth straight monthly increase, while canola prices fell from August, led by Manitoba at 6.6% and Saskatchewan at 6.1%, Statistics Canada said.
Abu Dhabi talks and wheat
Russia's chief negotiator Vladimir Medinsky said the two sides agreed in Abu Dhabi on "a new, large-scale prisoner exchange," and U.S. envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff will travel to Moscow on Thursday, DW reported. Ukraine had proposed safe navigation in the Black Sea for the agenda, and no concrete agreement on Black Sea shipping or grain exports had been announced after the first day, UkrAgroConsult reported.
Strikes continued during the talks. Russia's defence ministry said it hit a cargo vessel in the Black Sea southwest of Odesa, and a Ukrainian drone attack on Russia's Ust-Luga, a major oil and grain export outlet, caused a fire, DW reported. USDA lowered both Russian and Ukrainian wheat exports by 1.0 million tonnes, to 39.0 and 11.5 million, citing the Black Sea conflict, in the WASDE.
December Chicago wheat rose US$0.04¾ to US$5.92¾ a bushel on Nov 10, December Kansas City wheat gained US$0.01¾ to US$6.34¼ and December Minneapolis spring wheat added US$0.06½ to US$6.28¾, Successful Farming reported.
What to watch
ICE canola trading resumes Thursday after the Remembrance Day closure.
Kushner and Witkoff's Moscow visit on Thursday and any statement on Black Sea shipping.
Week 14 Canadian Grain Commission export and delivery figures on Grain Statistics Weekly.
Saskatchewan's Nov 15 deadline for post-harvest crop insurance claims and production declarations, noted in the final crop report coverage.
Prairie Grain Intelligence tells you the news.
The Klarenbach Grain Report has the plan.
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Sources: USDA, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, Nov 10, 2026 · CME Group, USDA report summary, Nov 10, 2026 · Brownfield, Closing Grain and Livestock Futures, Nov 10, 2026 · ICE Review, Nov 10, 2026 (via MarketScreener) · DePutter Publishing, ICE Close, Nov 10, 2026 (via Syngenta) · SaskToday, Closing grain prices (Bunge Moose Jaw), Nov 10, 2026 · Western Producer, Saskatchewan final crop report (via SaskToday) · Statistics Canada, Farm product prices, September 2026 · DW · UkrAgroConsult · Successful Farming
