Trent Klarenbach, BSA AgEc, PAg, founder and lead analyst, Klarenbach Research
U.S. envoys briefed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Dublin on Thursday after meeting Vladimir Putin in Moscow, and said Europeans will join the next round of talks.
Chicago wheat fell US$0.15¼ on Thursday as the U.S. dollar index reached a 19-month high after a hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation report.
ICE canola closed higher on its first session after Remembrance Day, with January up C$6.90 to C$777.30 per tonne, and traded higher again early Friday.
Dublin talks and Russian supply
Witkoff and Kushner met Putin at the Kremlin on Thursday before flying to Ireland to brief Zelenskyy, AP reported. Kushner said the sides had finalized a prisoner-of-war exchange and that "we cannot conclude this deal without Europeans being at the table," RTÉ reported. Witkoff said a new trilateral meeting has been set, CNN reported. Putin said he would not soften his territorial demands and ruled out foreign peacekeeping troops in Ukraine, AFP reported. None of the readouts mentioned Black Sea shipping.
SovEcon cut its forecast of Russian wheat exports by 0.7 million tonnes to 36 million tonnes, below USDA's 39 million tonnes, Total Farm Marketing noted. Rusagrotrans expects Russian wheat exports of about 3.15 million tonnes in November, down from 3.3 million in October, as terminal strikes limit loadings, Grain Central reported. Rabobank warned that low farmgate prices in Russia and Ukraine could cut next season's planted area, the same wire said.
Wheat falls with the dollar
December Chicago wheat lost US$0.15¼ to US$5.84¼ a bushel on Nov 12, December Kansas City wheat dropped US$0.17¼ to US$6.22¼ and December MIAX spring wheat fell US$0.12¾ to US$6.22¾, Total Farm Marketing reported. December corn lost US$0.05½ to US$4.42½ and January soybeans fell US$0.11¾ to US$12.19, Brownfield reported. December crude oil rose US$2.21 to US$88.74 a barrel, the same report showed.
Kansas City wheat fell 2.70% after USDA trimmed its hard red winter wheat export outlook earlier in the week, while Matif wheat gave back 3.75 but remains up 4.26% for the week, Grain Central said. ADM Investor Services noted that USDA puts combined Middle East and North Africa wheat imports at 46.4 million tonnes, down 18% from a year ago, in its Nov 12 market view.
As of Nov 10, 48% of U.S. winter wheat area was in drought, unchanged on the week and nine points above a year earlier, while spring wheat area in drought fell one point to 33%, Total Farm Marketing reported.
Canola gains on the soy complex
January canola rose C$6.90 to C$777.30 per tonne on Nov 12 and March added C$6.10 to C$787.10, supported by Wednesday's gains in Chicago soy, a weaker Canadian dollar, crush and export demand and firmer crude oil, Syngenta's ICE close said. Early Friday, January traded at C$787.10, up C$9.80, and March at C$796.60, up C$9.50, as of 4:57 AM CST, DTN quotes show.
Bunge's opening Saskatchewan cash price for canola was C$714.63 per tonne on Thursday, with 1 Red Spring wheat at C$295.15 and amber durum at C$310.34, SaskToday reported.
Malaysian palm oil gained 0.68% after Indonesia's palm oil association warned El Niño could cut its production by 3 million tonnes, Grain Central reported. USDA confirmed a 136,000-tonne U.S. soybean sale to China this week, and Anec expects Brazilian soybean exports of 4.37 million tonnes in November, Total Farm Marketing noted.
What to watch
USDA weekly export sales on Friday, with trade estimates of about 3.2 million tonnes of corn and 1.1 million tonnes of soybeans, per Grain Central.
Conab's updated Brazil crop estimate on Friday, noted by ADM Investor Services.
Week 14 Canadian Grain Commission export and delivery figures, due Nov 13 on Grain Statistics Weekly.
Saskatchewan's Nov 15 deadline for post-harvest crop insurance claims and production declarations, noted in the final crop report coverage.
Timing and agenda of the next trilateral round with European participation.
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Sources: AP, Nov 12, 2026 · RTÉ, Nov 12, 2026 · CNN (via KWWL), Nov 12, 2026 · AFP, Nov 12, 2026 · Total Farm Marketing, Daily Market Summary, Nov 12, 2026 · Grain Central, Daily Market Wire, Nov 13, 2026 · Brownfield, Closing Grain and Livestock Futures, Nov 12, 2026 · ADM Investor Services, Ag Market View, Nov 12, 2026 · Syngenta, ICE Close, Nov 12, 2026 · DTN, ICE canola quotes, Nov 13, 2026 · SaskToday, Nov 10 and Nov 12, 2026 · Canadian Grain Commission
