PGI REFERENCE · FERTILIZER
A framework for timing nitrogen and phosphate purchases on the Prairies: price level versus affordability, why NOLA is not Prairie delivered, and staggered buying.
By Trent Klarenbach, BSA AgEc, PAg
That is two questions. Price level asks whether fertilizer is down from its peak. Affordability asks how much grain it takes to buy it. Nitrogen can be well off its 2022 shock and still not be cheap against today's grain prices. PGI scores them separately.
The standard measure is the urea-to-corn ratio: the price of a tonne of urea divided by the price of a bushel of corn, or how many bushels of corn it takes to buy a tonne of urea. PGI runs the same ratio against the crops nitrogen goes on in the Prairies: urea against canola and CWRS cash. A falling ratio means nitrogen is getting more affordable even if its price has not moved.
NOLA (New Orleans barge) urea is a U.S. Gulf benchmark. Prairie delivered urea adds freight, retail margin and timing, and can move differently. PGI uses NOLA for direction only and labels any Prairie delivered figure as unavailable when there is no sourced print.
PGI's view: do not plan on it. The object is timing risk, not a target price. Staggered purchases spread that risk across the buying window instead of betting on one entry point. They are a risk-management approach, not a dated buy signal.
Saskatchewan is a dominant world potash supplier, but that does not make Prairie potash cheap or tariff-exposed by default. PGI treats potash trade-policy effects as unscored until a specific tariff line is confirmed.