PGI REFERENCE · CANOLA
AAFC's official 2026-27 canola supply and demand, with stocks-to-use calculated by PGI. Updated after each monthly AAFC outlook.
Last updated Oct 27, 2026 · Data: AAFC Oct 20, 2026 · By Trent Klarenbach, BSA AgEc, PAg
AAFC's Oct 20, 2026 outlook puts 2026-27 canola ending stocks at 1.968 Mt, with stocks-to-use at 8.9%. That is up from 1.504 Mt (6.9%) in August, after Statistics Canada's Sept 16 production model added 0.45 Mt to the crop. October was nearly unchanged from September's 1.979 Mt.
Production: 22.051 · 22.051 · 21.600 · 22.227
Exports: 7.700 · 7.700 · 8.000 · 8.956
Domestic use: 14.401 · 14.401 · 13.951 · 13.089
Ending stocks: 1.968 · 1.979 · 1.504 · 1.889
Stocks-to-use: 8.9% · 9.0% · 6.9% · 8.6%
Stocks-to-use = ending stocks ÷ (exports + domestic use), calculated by PGI from AAFC rows. Source: AAFC Outlook for Principal Field Crops. Aug 20 and Sept 25 figures checked against AAFC's own release; Oct 20 figures from the Western Producer's reprint, pending AAFC's posting.
Three rows moved, all in September. Production rose 0.451 Mt on the StatCan model. Domestic use rose 0.450 Mt. Exports fell 0.300 Mt. Net result: 0.475 Mt more carryout. October trimmed it by 11 kt.
Not by August's standard. At 8.9% stocks-to-use, 2026-27 now sits slightly looser than 2025-26 (8.6%). Demand has shifted from exports to domestic use, now 65% of total use (14.40 of 22.10 Mt).
– StatCan's December production survey revising the 22.05 Mt crop.
– Observed crush pace against the 14.40 Mt domestic-use forecast.
– Weekly CGC export pace against 7.70 Mt.
Related: Prairie stocks-to-use dashboard (/stocks-to-use). Daily analysis in Prairie Grain Intelligence; technical timing in the Klarenbach Grain Report.